In most of the world, Covid-19 will weigh on economies throughout 2021, resulting in lower output than expected before the pandemic hit. However, according to the latest outlook from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United States is the exception to the rule: Fourth quarter GDP is expected to be higher than pre-pandemic estimates indicated, coming in 0.2% above the level that was projected at the end of 2019.
“Vaccine rollout, although uneven, is gaining momentum and government stimulus, particularly in the United States, is likely to provide a major boost to economic activity,” the OECD said. “World output is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 but much will depend on the race between vaccines and emerging variants of the virus.” (h/t Jason Furman)
