Question of the day: Will the millions of gallons of oil that are gushing into the Gulf of Mexico slither their way up the Atlantic Coast and continue their assault on the economy and the environment? Like a slimy predator in a bad horror movie, the oil spill has devastated the Gulf area fishing and tourism industries. But scientists believe the chances of the spill moving up the Atlantic Coast are remote.
The prospect of oil ending up on the Atlantic Coast is scientifically unlikely, says Breck Owens, a physical oceanographer with Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. “It would mean the oil has to travel east into the Gulf Stream, become part of an eddy, and in a major wind event or storm be taken across the shelf toward the Atlantic Coast. By the time you add all those things up, the chances are really tiny,” he said.
Owens is part of a team that has set up gliders in the Gulf, which will help monitor where the spill travels. The gliders profile the water’s surface and varying depths in order to map currents. So far, so good. He adds, “I don’t want to sound like the CEO of BP, but it’s an awfully big ocean, and there’s not that much oil.”
One organization that has been rescuing oil-soaked birds is not as confident. Ken Rosenberg, director of conservation science at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, said if the oil did spread, “it would harm most of the same species of birds we’re already concerned about in the Gulf. Pelicans, terns, black skimmers, beach-nesting birds — all of them have extensive colonies along the Atlantic coast, which is lined with wildlife refuges and vital coastal habitats.”
“It’s Raining Oil!”
Unsubstantiated reports about oil raining from skies were circulating the past two days. But no one could confirm the rumors. Professor Remata Reddy, who studies tropical meteorology at Jackson State University in Mississippi, anticipates the possibility of oil rain. “Oil evaporates very slowly,” says Reddy. “If any system crosses into the Gulf and makes landfall at that time, there is a possibility of oil rain.” He and several others have been collecting rainfall in the Jackson and Clinton areas of Mississippi and plan to analyze the PH levels next week. If there is oil in the rain, it could taint the drinking water, fisheries and agriculture in the Gulf region, Reddy says.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an above-normal hurricane season this year. NOAA expects 14 to 23 named storms, of which three to seven of them could develop into major hurricanes. “If a tropical storm or hurricane were to form and track all over the Gulf of Mexico where the Deepwater Horizon oil incident is currently, depending on it's track it could actually bring some oil with its storm surge farther inland than along its coastline,” says the National Weather Service’s Brian LaMarre.
The Proposed “Oil Summit”
While Gulf residents continue to cope with the devastation, East Coast governors have been reacting to a summit idea put forward on Wednesday by Steny Hoyer, house majority leader from Maryland. In a letter to President Obama, Hoyer asked for a meeting among the governors to plan for and prepare an adequate response to the oil disaster, should the oil by some chance be carried along by the loop current and up along the Atlantic Coast.
The date of a potential summit is undetermined; Hoyer is awaiting word from the White House.
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