We Just Went Through the Worst Month Since the Great Recession

We Just Went Through the Worst Month Since the Great Recession

The Fiscal Times/iStockphoto
By Yuval Rosenberg

We already knew the economy really struggled over the first few months of 2015, with March being especially rough. A new report from economists at Macroeconomic Advisers shows just how bad a month it really was.

The forecasting firm, which tracks economic progress on a monthly basis rather than just a quarterly one, now says that GDP fell 1 percent in March. “This was the largest decline since December 2008, when the U.S. economy was in the throes of recession,” its update notes.

The Commerce Department initially estimated that GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter. An updated report, due May 29, is now expected to show that the economy actually shrank over the first three months of the year. J.P. Morgan economists have lowered their tracking estimate of first-quarter GDP from -0.8 percent to -1.1 percent based on data released over the last two days.

Related: Why So Many Americans Are Trapped in ‘Deep Poverty’

As we’ve written before, though, the downturn isn’t necessarily reason to worry about the fundamental health of the economy, or at least it shouldn’t stoke fears that we’re diving into another recession. As the Macroeconomic Advisers report explains, “A sharp decline in net exports more than accounted for the decline in monthly GDP, as resolution to the West Coast port dispute led to a surge in imports to well above the recent trend. As a result, they write, they believe the one-month plunge “overstates the underlying weakness in the economy.”

That’s not to say the economy is particularly strong, either. Both Macroeconomic Advisers and J.P. Morgan now forecast second-quarter GDP growth to come in at a tepid 2 percent annualized rate.

Will Trump's Tax Cuts Really Happen? Economists Are Surprisingly Optimistic

By Yuval Rosenberg

Despite all the thorny questions swirling around President Trump's nascent tax reform plan, 29 of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg in a monthly poll said they expect Congress to cut taxes by November of next year.

The hitch: The economists don’t expect the cuts will help the economy much. The median projection of a larger group of 71 economists is for 2018 growth of 2.3 percent, up only slightly from 2.1 percent this year — and by 2019, the economists see growth slipping back to 2 percent.

Clinton Loses Altitude in Iowa

By The Fiscal Times Staff

 

Sanders and Biden Pressure Clinton in a Three-Way Race

By The Fiscal Times Staff

 

Super PACS Have Raised a Startling $258 Million…So Far

By The Fiscal Times Staff

 

Clinton Improves in National Poll, but Biden's Potential Grows

By The Fiscal Times Staff