Here’s What Consumers Were and Weren’t Buying in June
Retail sales were disappointingly soft in June, continuing a zig-zag pattern of strength and weakness this year. Sales fell 0.3 percent, falling shy of economists’ expectations for a 0.3 percent gain after a 1 percent jump in May. The only spending categories to post decent gains were electronics and appliance stores sales, gas station sales and discount stores.
“In May, retail gains signaled that consumers may have started using their so-called pump price dividend toward purchases of discretionary items,” Chris G. Christopher, Jr., the director of consumer economics at IHS Global Insight, wrote in an email to clients. Now, he added, the retail data “are pointing to a consumer that spends their paycheck in fits and starts.”
Related: What the U.S. Must Do to Avoid Another Financial Crisis
Those fits and starts averaged out to a fairly healthy 2.6 percent annualized increase over April, May and June. “The glass half-full take on consumers is that 2.6 percent is still somewhat better than the 2.3 percent consumption growth we've averaged since the beginning of the current expansion,” J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli said in a research note. “The glass half-empty view is that there is now even less evidence of a sharp snapback in spending after an unambiguously disappointing Q1.”
Here’s a breakdown from the Bespoke Investment Group of how different retail categories fared:
Budget ‘Chaos’ Threatens Army Reset: Retired General
One thing is standing in the way of a major ongoing effort to reset the U.S. Army, writes Carter Ham, a retired four-star general who’s now president and CEO of the Association of the U.S. Army, at Defense One. “The problem is the Washington, D.C., budget quagmire.”
The issue is more than just a matter of funding levels. “What hurts more is the erratic, unreliable and downright harmful federal budget process,” which has forced the Army to plan based on stopgap “continuing resolutions” instead of approved budgets for nine straight fiscal years. “A slowdown in combat-related training, production delays in new weapons, and a postponement of increases in Army troop levels are among the immediate impacts of operating under this ill-named continuing resolution. It’s not continuous and it certainly doesn’t display resolve.”
Pentagon Pushes for Faster F-35 Cost Cuts
The Pentagon has taken over cost-cutting efforts for the F-35 program, which has been plagued by years of cost overruns, production delays and technical problems. The Defense Department rejected a cost-saving plan proposed by contractors including principal manufacturer Lockheed Martin as being too slow to produce substantial savings. Instead, it gave Lockheed a $60 million contract “to pursue further efficiency measures, with more oversight of how the money was spent,” The Wall Street Journal’s Doug Cameron reports. F-35 program leaders “say they want more of the cost-saving effort directed at smaller suppliers that haven’t been pressured enough.” The Pentagon plans to cut the price of the F-35A model used by the Air Force from a recent $94.6 million each to around $80 million by 2020. Overall, the price of developing the F-35 has climbed above $400 billion, with the total program cost now projected at $1.53 trillion. (Wall Street Journal, CNBC)
Chart of the Day - October 6, 2017
Financial performance for insurers in the individual Obamacare markets is improving, driven by higher premiums and slower growth in claims. This suggests that the market is stabilizing. (Kaiser Family Foundation)
Quote of the Day - October 5, 2017
"The train's left the station, and if you're a budget hawk, you were left at the station." -- Rep. Mark Sanford, R-S.C.