Obama Faces Widespread Public Distrust on Iran Deal
President Obama will try to drum up support for the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal Wednesday afternoon at a news conference. But with widespread public disdain and distrust of Iran, Obama may have trouble convincing Americans of the wisdom of dealing with a long-time arch enemy in the Middle East.
The U.S. and Iran on Tuesday announced an agreement that would potentially block Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon for at least a decade while lifting international economic sanctions against Tehran. However, a new AP-GfK poll that was conducted just ahead of the announcement found that Americans only narrowly back diplomatic relations with the hardline Islamic government, and many want to see the sanctions kept in place.
Related: The 8 Most Important Things to Know About the Iran Nuclear Deal
Just 51 percent of those interviewed said the U.S. should have diplomatic relations with Iran while 45 percent said it shouldn’t. At the same time, 77 percent of those interviewed said the harsh U.S. and international economic sanctions against Iran should be preserved at current levels or even increased.
Only 12 percent of those interviewed thought sanctions should be decreased and seven percent said they should be eliminated altogether.
The public’s wariness and distrust of dating back to the 1979 Iranian revolution and U.S. hostage crisis matches the reception the nuclear agreement has received on Capitol Hill where most Republicans and some Democrats say they fear Obama has conceded too much to a country that has fomented terrorist activities throughout the Middle East and has repeatedly vowed to destroy Israel.
Fifty-six percent of Americans consider Iran to be an enemy, according to the poll conducted last Thursday through Monday, while an additional 31 percent consider Iran to be unfriendly but not an enemy. More than 70 percent of Republicans, half of all independents and 45 percent of Democrats described Iran as the enemy.
Related: Clinton Cautious in Her Praise of a Nuclear Deal She Helped to Orchestrate
Before the agreement was announced, six in ten Americans said they disapproved of Obama's handling of the U.S. relationship with Iran, while just over a third approved.
Obama is likely to prevail in pushing the nuclear non-proliferation agreement through Congress over the next two months, despite near-unanimous opposition from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker John Boehner and other leaders and rank and file Republicans. Still, he will need to hold in place at least 34 of the 46 Democrats in the Senate to create a veto-proof firewall in the event Republicans push through a resolution of disapproval of the nuclear deal.
That means that Obama cannot afford any more than 12 Democratic defections to keep the agreement alive. Yesterday, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden began working the phones to shore up support on Capitol Hill, and the president will continue that effort during this afternoon’s White House press conference.
During an interview yesterday with Tom Friedman of The New York Times, Obama stressed that the deal prevented a pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon while making it clear he shared Americans’ distrust of the Iranian government and had limited expectations of improved relations down the road.
Related: Iran Agrees to Limit Nuclear Weapon in Historic Deal
When announcing the deal yesterday, Obama said, “This deal is not built on trust -- it's built on verification…. We will, for the first time, be in a position to verify that Iran is meeting all of these commitments. International nuclear inspectors will have access to Iran's nuclear program -- where necessary, when necessary. This is the most comprehensive and intrusive verification regime that we have ever negotiated. If Iran tries to divert raw materials to covert facilities, inspectors will be able to access any suspicious locations.”
Maybe Don’t Count Out Obamacare Repeal Just Yet
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) told reporters on Friday that he’s getting close to securing enough votes to pass the last-ditch ACA repeal and replacement bill he’s put forth with Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Dean Heller (R-NV) and Ron Johnson (R-WI).
“I am pretty confident we’ll get there on the Republican side,” Cassidy said. “We’re probably at 48-49 [votes] and talking to two or three more.” And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has asked the Congressional Budget Office to estimate the effects of the Cassidy-Graham bill, which would speed up the scoring process.
Of course, those last two or three votes have been the challenge for the GOP all along, and they may not be any easier to round up this time. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who voted for a prior repeal bill, said Friday that he won't support this one. Plus, opponents are already stepping up their criticisms about the effects of the bill. And time is running out: Cassidy and his colleagues only have until September 30 to pass the bill this year under a process that would require only 50 supporters in the Senate. So while the Obamacare repeal may still have life, it remains a longshot.
Orrin Hatch Signals Just How Complicated Tax Reform Will Be
GOP leaders said Wednesday that they'd issue a more detailed framework of their tax overhaul the week of September 25. But while lawmakers are eager to get more details about the outline being hashed out by the so-called Big Six team of negotiators, Republicans are still divided on key elements of the plan — going from blueprint to bill is bound to be a contentious process.
In his opening remarks at a Senate Finance Committee hearing today on individual tax reform, Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) said the plan from the Big Six — of which he is one — "will not dictate the direction" the tax-writing committee takes. "Anyone with any experience with the Senate Finance Committee knows that we are not anyone’s rubber stamp," he said. "If a bill – particularly on something as consequential as tax reform – is going to pass in this committee, the members of the committee will have to be involved in putting it together."
Oh, and remember: Republicans also need to agree on a budget before they can push through tax reform without Democratic votes.
Aging Baby Boomers Drive Down the Uninsured Rate
About 10,000 boomers turn 65 every day, becoming eligible for Medicare on their birthdays. The Census Bureau says that the sheer number of boomers entering Medicare is affecting the uninsured rate for the whole population. That rate fell to 8.8 percent in 2016, down from 9.1 percent a year earlier, with most of the decline driven by the aging of the post-war generation. (Wall Street Journal)
Social Security Kept 26.1 Million Out of Poverty Last Year
Social Security kept more than 26 million people out of poverty last year, according to a new report from the Census Bureau. Refundable tax credits such as the one for earned income kept 8.2 million people out of poverty, while food stamps lifted 3.6 million above the line, housing subsidies reduced the number of poor people by 3.1 million and unemployment insurance kept 680,000 out of poverty. Overall, the Census Bureau reported, the poverty rate was 12.7 percent, while a more sophisticated alternative measure that factors in government programs for low-income families put the rate at 13.9 percent, down from 14.5 percent in 2015.
Read more about the new Census Bureau numbers here.
Tax Reform on Menu for Trump's Dinner with Dems
President Trump is set to host three moderate Democratic senators for dinner on Tuesday as part of his push for tax reform, Politico reports. The Democrats on the guest list: Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana, all of whom are up for reelection in 2018 in states Trump won last November. Vice President Mike Pence and GOP Sens. Orrin Hatch of Utah, John Thune of South Dakota and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania are also slated to attend.