The Kids Aren’t Alright: More Millennials Are Living with Their Parents
Pity the millennial, poster child of the Great Recession. A popular meme portrays the typical millennial as a basement-dwelling economic loser, forever condemned to live in the nether regions of his parent’s house. Unfortunately, that meme is not without basis. The recession seem to have hit millennials particularly hard, making it even more difficult for young people to find good jobs and to establish their own households.
In some respects, things are looking up for millennials. The U.S. job market is strengthening, making it easier to find work, and wages are starting to creep higher. The unemployment rate for young adults (ages 18 to 34, excluding full-time college students) has been heading lower since peaking near 12 percent in 2010; the latest unemployment reading for millennials is 7.7 percent.
However, there is one notable sticking point, and it echoes that basement-dwelling meme. Even though household formation rates have rebounded overall, millennials are still not moving out and establishing their own households like they used to. In fact, more millennials are living with parents or relatives than before the recession, according to new research from Pew.
In 2007, before the recession hit, 71 percent of millennials were living independently. In 2015, that number has fallen to 67 percent, with no sign of bottoming.
On the flip side, 22 percent of young adults were living in their parents’ homes in 2007. That number has risen to 26 percent this year.
The Pew report doesn’t look at why millennials are sticking so close to home. However, it does suggest that the relatively simple economic argument about the lack of good jobs no longer tells the whole story. Since the economy is recovering, however unevenly, there are likely other factors in play. One could be cultural: More young people simply enjoy living at home and are in no hurry to move out. Perhaps the U.S. is becoming more like Italy, where adult children often live at home until they marry.
That’s not to say that money plays no role in the trend, though. One big economic factor not addressed in the Pew report is pretty basic: rising rents. This graphic from Zillow makes it clear that rents have been soaring all over the country. More than $3,000 for a one bedroom in San Francisco? With those kind of numbers, living at home makes all the sense in the world.
Quote of the Day: A Big Hurdle for the Tax Cuts
“He goes in and campaigns on an issue, and the challenge is he then talks about executing drug dealers. Why do you think the press is going to cover the tax cuts if you’ve given them the much more exciting issue?”
-- Grover Norquist, president of tax-cutting advocacy group Americans for Tax Reform, on President Trump’s failure to sell the tax law.
The Obamacare Mandate That Could Produce $12 Billion in Fines in 2018
Republicans effectively eliminated the individual Obamacare mandate in the tax package signed late last year. Although the new regulation reducing the mandate penalty to zero doesn’t take effect until 2019, President Trump has cited the rule change as a victory over the health law so many conservatives oppose. “Essentially, we are getting rid of Obamacare. Some people would say, essentially, we have gotten rid of it," Trump told a crowd in Michigan two weeks ago.
However, many parts of the Affordable Care Act are still in effect and will continue to operate even after the individual mandate is eliminated in 2019.
In particular, the employer mandate, which requires companies with more than 50 employees to offer health benefits or face fine of roughly $2,000 per worker, will continue to play a significant role in the Obamacare system. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the mandate will produce more than $12 billion in fines in 2018 alone.
Some conservative groups are pushing lawmakers to stop enforcing the employer mandate, but the IRS is still working to enforce the law. According to The New York Times Monday, the IRS is sending out notices to more than 30,000 businesses that have failed to comply.
Chart of the Day: It’s Still the Economy, Stupid
Security may be the top policy issue for Republican voters, but the economy is the top concern for Democrats, independents and voters overall, according to Morning Consult’s latest polling on the midterm elections. Health care is third on the list, followed by “seniors’ issues.” The results are based on surveys with more than 275,000 registered U.S. voters from February 1 to April 30.
Number of the Day: $13 Billion
An analysis by Bloomberg finds that the roughly 180 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings for the first three months of the year saved almost $13 billion thanks to the corporate tax cut enacted late last year. Those companies’ effective tax rate dropped by more than 6 percentage points on average. About a third of the tax savings went to 44 financial firms.
How a Florida Doctor with Social Ties to Trump Delayed a $16B Billion VA Project
A West Palm Beach doctor who is friends with Ike Perlmutter, the chairman of Marvel Entertainment and an informal adviser to President Trump on veterans’ issues, has held up “the biggest health information technology project in history — the transformation of the VA’s digital records system,” Politico’s Arthur Allen reports. Dr. Bruce Moskowitz “objected to the $16 billion Department of Veterans Affairs project because he doesn’t like the Cerner Corp. software he uses at two Florida hospitals, according to four former and current senior VA officials. Cerner technology is a cornerstone of the VA project. … Moskowitz’s concerns effectively delayed the agreement for months, the sources said.” Read the full story.