John Kasich’s Latest Endorsement Could Be a Game-Changer

Ohio’s Republican Gov. John Kasich on Monday sought to enshrine his status as a top-tier presidential candidate when he rolled out the endorsement of Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley.
“John Kasich is a leader whose readiness to lead our nation on his first day in the Oval Office is unmatched,” Bentley said during a joint appearance at the Alabama Sports Hall of Fame. “America needs John Kasich, and I am going to do everything I can to help make sure he is our next president.”
Related: 10 Things You Need to Know About John Kasich
On paper, the Republican governor of a deep-red Southern state endorsing a GOP presidential candidate months before the first primary votes are cast may not come as much of a surprise, but it could ultimately mean a great deal for Kasich’s White House bid.
The Ohio Republican, with his compassionate conservative message, has touted himself as a moderate in the crowded GOP field; winning the support of the executive of one of the most conservative states in the nation could help him broaden his appeal in the party.
Alabama is set to play a major role in the GOP’s 2016 nomination process. The state is one of eight in the South that will hold a vote on March 1 in the so-called “SEC primary.”
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), another White House hopeful, has called the cluster of states the “firewall” for his candidacy and wrapped up a southern bus tour last week, drawing large crowds in Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas.
Related: Did Kasich Just Do an About-Face on Climate Change?
By making hay of Bentley’s endorsement, Kasich also aims to stay in the spotlight and secure his place on the main stage when Republicans meet again next month for their second debate.
Kasich announced his candidacy just a few weeks before the first debate in Cleveland earlier this month in the hope that his initial splash in the polls would be enough for him to make the cut-off for the prime time event. The strategy paid off; Kasich received standing ovations and thunderous applause whenever he answered a question before the home state crowd.
But surveys taken since the debate show former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina surging in the polls, meaning another contender is likely to get bumped off stage.
After Bentley’s announcement, Kasich, who has bet his candidacy on winning the New Hampshire primary and watched his numbers steadily rise there, will make a campaign swing through the Granite State, Iowa and South Carolina.
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More than half of registered voters polled by Morning Consult and Politico said they support work requirements for Medicaid recipients. Thirty-seven percent oppose such eligibility rules.
Martin Feldstein Is Optimistic About Tax Cuts, and Long-Term Deficits
In a new piece published at Project Syndicate, the conservative economist, who led President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984, writes that pro-growth tax individual and corporate reform will get done — and that any resulting spike in the budget deficit will be temporary:
“Although the net tax changes may widen the budget deficit in the short term, the incentive effects of lower tax rates and the increased accumulation of capital will mean faster economic growth and higher real incomes, both of which will cause rising taxable incomes and lower long-term deficits.”
Doing tax reform through reconciliation — allowing it to be passed by a simple majority in the Senate, as long as it doesn’t add to the deficit after 10 years — is another key. “By designing the tax and spending rules accordingly and phasing in future revenue increases, the Republicans can achieve the needed long-term surpluses,” Feldstein argues.
Of course, the big questions remain whether tax and spending changes are really designed as Feldstein describes — and whether “future revenue increases” ever come to fruition. Otherwise, those “long-term surpluses” Feldstein says we need won’t ever materialize.
JP Morgan: Don’t Expect Tax Reform This Year
Gary Cohn, President Trump’s top economic adviser, seems pretty confident that Congress can produce a tax bill in a hurry. He told the Financial Times (paywall) last week that the Ways and Means Committee should be write a bill “in the next three of four weeks.” But most experts doubt that such a complicated undertaking can be accomplished so quickly. In a note to clients this week, J.P. Morgan analysts said they don’t expect to see a tax bill passed until mid-2018, following months of political wrangling:
“There will likely be months of committee hearings, lobbying by affected groups, and behind-the-scenes horse trading before final tax legislation emerges. Our baseline forecast continues to pencil in a modest, temporary, deficit-financed tax cut to be passed in 2Q2018 through the reconciliation process, avoiding the need to attract 60 votes in the Senate.”
Trump Still Has No Tax Reform Plan to Pitch
Bloomberg’s Sahil Kapur writes that, even as President Trump prepares to push tax reform thus week, basic questions about the plan have no answers: “Will the changes be permanent or temporary? How will individual tax brackets be set? What rate will corporations and small businesses pay?”
“They’re nowhere. They’re just nowhere,” Henrietta Treyz, a tax analyst with Veda Partners and former Senate tax staffer, tells Kapur. “I see them putting these ideas out as though they’re making progress, but they are the same regurgitated ideas we’ve been talking about for 20 years that have never gotten past the white-paper stage.”
The Fiscal Times Newsletter - August 28, 2017
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