Automakers Are Having a Record Year, but Here’s a Trend that Should Worry Them
U.S. auto sales closed out the summer on a positive note, topping estimates and casting some rosy light on the health of the American consumer. Recording its best August since 2003, the auto industry is on pace to sell 17.8 vehicles in 2015, well ahead of expectations of 17.3 million. If the numbers hold up, 2015 will be the best year ever for U.S. auto sales, beating the 17.4 million mark set in 2000.
The general consensus is that auto industry is in pretty good shape these days. Gas prices and interest rates are low, boosting the market for cars and light trucks. More than 2 million jobs were added to the U.S. economy in the past year, and more jobs is usually good news for auto sales. The unemployment rate has been trending lower for five years, sitting at a relatively healthy 5.3 percent in July.
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As with any statistic, though, there’s more than one way to look at the situation. Sure, auto sales are climbing as the economy gets stronger and more Americans hit their local car dealers’ lots. At least to some degree, though, higher auto sales should be expected just as a result of U.S. population growth. And those rising monthly sales figures are masking a continuing trend that is more worrisome for the auto industry: per capita auto sales are still in a long-term decline, even including the solid growth the industry has seen since the end of the recession. Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives did the math and made a graph:
According to Short’s analysis, the peak year for per capita auto sales in the U.S. was 1978. As the red line in the graph shows, the trend is negative since then.
In the graph, per capita auto sales in January, 1976, were defined as 100; the readings in the index since then are relative to that 1976 sales level. As you can see, the index moves higher until August of 1978, when per capita auto sales were up nearly 20 percent over 1976. Since then, per capita auto sales have fallen, reaching a low in 2009 that was nearly 50 percent lower than 1976. Since 2009, per capita auto sales have risen nicely, but are still more than 15 percent below peak.
What could explain the negative trend? Two factors come to mind. First, demographics. It has been widely reported that the millennial generation is less interested in owning cars for a variety of reasons, ranging from a weak economy to a cultural shift away from suburban life. However, the data on millennial car purchases is ambiguous; recently, millennials have started buying cars in volumes that look a lot like their elders. And even if millennials are less interested in buying cars, their preferences can’t explain a shift that began in the 1970s, before they were born.
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The other factor that may explain the trend is income inequality. A study of car ownership by the Carnegie Foundation found that countries with higher income inequality have fewer cars per capita. The logic is simple: As more income is claimed by the wealthy, there’s less to go around for everyone else. And that means there’s less money for middle and lower income groups to buy and maintain automobiles, among other things.
Here’s a chart of the Gini index for the U.S. since 1947. (The Gini Index is a widely-used measure of income inequality. A higher Gini number means higher inequality.) Note that the Gini reading started climbing in the late ‘70s – the same time when per capita car ownership in the U.S. began to fall.
This chart tells us, not for the first time, that the U.S. has experienced more income inequality since the 1970s. Combined with the per capita auto sales data above, it suggests that as the rich have gotten richer and everyone else has struggled to keep up, car ownership has suffered. Although this is by no means proof of the relationship between income inequality and per capita car ownership over the last 40 years, it hints at an interesting theory – and suggests that the auto industry has good reason to be concerned about growing inequality in the U.S.
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Medical ID Theft is a Way Bigger Problem Than You Think
Forget Target and Home Depot. You may be risking identity theft every time you visit the doctor’s office.
Medical ID theft, in which thieves steal your Social Security number and health insurance info in order to fraudulently obtain medical services or treatment, is skyrocketing.
More than 90 percent of healthcare organizations have had a data breach, and 40 percent had more than five data breaches in the past two years, according to a report released last month by ID Experts. Attacks by criminal organizations are up 125 percent over the past five years. Medical identities are worth far more on the black market than financial identities.
The study estimates that data breaches may have cost the industry $6 billion in the last two years. The scariest stat for consumers: Half of organizations surveyed have little or no confidence in their ability to detect all patient data loss or theft.
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Victims of medical ID theft spend thousands to restore their credit and correct inaccuracies in their medical records, and unlike banks and credit card issuers, most healthcare organizations offer no protection services for victims.
In addition to the financial toll, there are health risks to victims of medical ID theft. If someone steals your identity and receives treatment that gets added to your medical records, doctors may have incorrect information regarding your health history and allergies.
It’s difficult to prevent medical ID theft, but monitoring your credit and closely reading your healthcare bill and explanation of benefits notices can help you catch it early.
Can a Few Chocolate Euros Stop a Grexit?
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has clashed repeatedly with Yanis Varoufakis over Greece's debt and economic reforms since the leftist Syriza party took power in January, pledging to end austerity and renegotiate the bailout terms.
In an interview with the children's television program "Logo" on German broadcaster ZDF last week, a girl reporter gave Schaeuble a supportive handful of the chocolate coins.
"I'll take a few for my Greek colleague, he also needs strong nerves," Schaeuble replied.
Greece hopes to secure a cash-for-reforms deal with its lenders this week. But after four months of tortuous negotiations no breakthrough is in sight. Without a deal Athens risks default or bankruptcy in weeks.
A Made-Up Holiday That Could Help Your Kids Go to College
Marketers are great at making up holidays—and who doesn’t love having an excuse to eat donuts on National Donut Day or pizza on National Pizza Day?
Most of these special days, however, tend to take a toll on both our wallets and our waistlines. Today may be an exception: The personal finance and college saving industries have dubbed today 529 Day (Get it? 5/29), a day to celebrate saving for college via tax-favored 529 plans.
Americans could benefit from any impetus to save more for higher education. The average American family that’s saving for college put away about $2,600 last year and has a total of just over $10,000 socked away for education, according to Sallie Mae’s annual How America Saves for College report. That’s the lowest amount since the survey began in 2009 — or about enough to send one kid to college for one semester at today’s prices.
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Many states are “celebrating” the day with everything from waived enrollment fees to discounted admission to local baseball games. (Each plan is sponsored by a state but run by financial firms.) Check out this interactive map to find out if your state is offering any incentives today.
Contributions to a 529 plan are made after federal taxes, but the money grows tax-free as long as the proceeds are used for education costs. Some states also offer tax breaks on contributions.
The average cost of attending public college this year is $19,000. For private college it’s $33,000, according to The College Board. So there’s no time like today to start saving.
The 5 Funniest 2015 Commencement Speakers
At commencement ceremonies, every speaker gets to be a comedian, even comedians. The competition was tough, but at least two of the best lines compiled by The Washington Post, came from politicians.
“I stand here humbled, gracious and completely naked under this robe.”
--Maya Rudolph, Tulane University
“The UVA community has some experience with being defined by outsiders. It has been said that a rolling stone gathers no moss. I would add that sometimes a rolling stone also gathers no verifiable facts or even the tiniest morsels of journalistic integrity.”
--Ed Helms, University of Virginia
“Tisch graduates, you made it. And you’re f----ed. The graduates from the College of Nursing, they all have jobs. The graduates from the College of Dentistry, fully employed. The Leonard N. Stern School of Business graduates, they’re covered. The School of Medicine graduates, each one will get a job. The proud graduates of the NYU School of Law, they’re covered. And if they’re not, who cares? They’re lawyers.”
--Robert DeNiro, Tisch School of the Arts, New York University
…[Yale was] one touchdown away from beating Harvard this year for the first time since 2006. So close to something you’ve wanted for eight years. I can only imagine how you feel. I can only imagine.”
--Vice President Joe Biden, Yale University
Those of you who are graduating this afternoon with high honors, awards and distinction, I say, ‘Well done.’ And as I like to tell the C students, ‘You, too, can be president.’”
--former President George W. Bush, Southern Methodist University
Denny Hastert: Uh, About That $500,000 Statue…
Illinois state lawmakers are hitting the breaks on a proposal to spend half a million dollars for a statue honoring former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert after the Justice Department indicted the Illinois Republican on multiple charges Thursday.
About a month before the DOJ announced the indictment against Hastert,
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan introduced a bill to allocate $500,000 from the Illinois Development Fund for a statue of Hastert, who represented Illinois’ 14th Congressional for 20 years after serving as a state representative.
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However, Madigan’s spokesperson, Steve Brown, said Hastert contacted lawmakers asked that they defer the proposal because of the state’s financial condition. Illinois currently is running a $9 billion deficit. Still, the bill, which passed through a house committee, was placed on the calendar for a third reading on May 18.
In the indictment released Thursday evening, federal investigators allege that Hastert paid $3.5 million in hush money to “cover up misconduct.” The money allegedly went to someone in Yorkville, Ill., where he previously coached high school wrestling. The seven-page indictment also accused him of lying to the FBI.
Following the announcement, Hastert reportedly resigned from his current position at Washington, D.C., law firm Dickstein Shapiro, as well as a board member at CME Group, according to Reuters.