Automakers Are Having a Record Year, but Here’s a Trend that Should Worry Them
U.S. auto sales closed out the summer on a positive note, topping estimates and casting some rosy light on the health of the American consumer. Recording its best August since 2003, the auto industry is on pace to sell 17.8 vehicles in 2015, well ahead of expectations of 17.3 million. If the numbers hold up, 2015 will be the best year ever for U.S. auto sales, beating the 17.4 million mark set in 2000.
The general consensus is that auto industry is in pretty good shape these days. Gas prices and interest rates are low, boosting the market for cars and light trucks. More than 2 million jobs were added to the U.S. economy in the past year, and more jobs is usually good news for auto sales. The unemployment rate has been trending lower for five years, sitting at a relatively healthy 5.3 percent in July.
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As with any statistic, though, there’s more than one way to look at the situation. Sure, auto sales are climbing as the economy gets stronger and more Americans hit their local car dealers’ lots. At least to some degree, though, higher auto sales should be expected just as a result of U.S. population growth. And those rising monthly sales figures are masking a continuing trend that is more worrisome for the auto industry: per capita auto sales are still in a long-term decline, even including the solid growth the industry has seen since the end of the recession. Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives did the math and made a graph:
According to Short’s analysis, the peak year for per capita auto sales in the U.S. was 1978. As the red line in the graph shows, the trend is negative since then.
In the graph, per capita auto sales in January, 1976, were defined as 100; the readings in the index since then are relative to that 1976 sales level. As you can see, the index moves higher until August of 1978, when per capita auto sales were up nearly 20 percent over 1976. Since then, per capita auto sales have fallen, reaching a low in 2009 that was nearly 50 percent lower than 1976. Since 2009, per capita auto sales have risen nicely, but are still more than 15 percent below peak.
What could explain the negative trend? Two factors come to mind. First, demographics. It has been widely reported that the millennial generation is less interested in owning cars for a variety of reasons, ranging from a weak economy to a cultural shift away from suburban life. However, the data on millennial car purchases is ambiguous; recently, millennials have started buying cars in volumes that look a lot like their elders. And even if millennials are less interested in buying cars, their preferences can’t explain a shift that began in the 1970s, before they were born.
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The other factor that may explain the trend is income inequality. A study of car ownership by the Carnegie Foundation found that countries with higher income inequality have fewer cars per capita. The logic is simple: As more income is claimed by the wealthy, there’s less to go around for everyone else. And that means there’s less money for middle and lower income groups to buy and maintain automobiles, among other things.
Here’s a chart of the Gini index for the U.S. since 1947. (The Gini Index is a widely-used measure of income inequality. A higher Gini number means higher inequality.) Note that the Gini reading started climbing in the late ‘70s – the same time when per capita car ownership in the U.S. began to fall.
This chart tells us, not for the first time, that the U.S. has experienced more income inequality since the 1970s. Combined with the per capita auto sales data above, it suggests that as the rich have gotten richer and everyone else has struggled to keep up, car ownership has suffered. Although this is by no means proof of the relationship between income inequality and per capita car ownership over the last 40 years, it hints at an interesting theory – and suggests that the auto industry has good reason to be concerned about growing inequality in the U.S.
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Hollywood Box Office Fail: A Memorial Day to Forget
For years, Memorial Day weekend has been the unofficial beginning of summer blockbuster season, with the multitudes rushing in to enjoy free air conditioning, buttered popcorn and big explosions. And though Hollywood has started releasing its blockbusters earlier and earlier (Marvel/Disney, in particular seems to love the first weekend in May), the audiences don’t seem to have gotten the message.
Tomorrowland, the weekend’s No. 1 grossing film, took in an unimpressive $40.7 million, just ahead of 2010’s groan-worthy Prince of Persia on the list of holiday weekend openers.
Memorial Day 2015 was the worst holiday weekend for Hollywood since 2001, when Michael Bay’s infamous WWII flop Pearl Harbor graced the screens. Considering the 44 percent increase in ticket prices over that time, this is a particularly bleak outlook for theaters.
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Tomorrowland only barely beat Pitch Perfect 2, in its second week of release.
In 2014, X-Men: Days of Future Past took home $110.6 million, while the previous year had the sixth entry in the Fast and the Furious franchise to drive $97.4 million domestically.
The news is better internationally, where the most recent Avengers film (Avengers: Age of Ultron) continues to rake in the yuan, millions at a time. But the outlook for the rest of the domestic season is less rosy, with no obvious saviors later in the summer (Jurassic World, maybe?).
It’s not even June yet, but it is already looking like a chilly summer for Hollywood.
Here’s Why Your Breakfast Just Got Way More Expensive
You’re going to have to start shelling out a lot more for your eggs.
U.S. farmers in 20 states have killed more than 40 million chickens and turkeys since December, including about a third of the commercial, egg-laying birds in Iowa, as the United States experiences its biggest-ever bird flu outbreak.
The diminishing poultry population has led to an egg supply crunch, pushing prices some 85 percent higher, according to The Wall Street Journal. Economists say prices could spike another 20 to 30 percent.
The outbreak comes just as eggs are returning to favor with consumers after years of fighting perceptions that they’re unhealthy. In 2013, Americans consumers munched on more than 250 eggs per capita, the highest rate in six years.
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Last year, the U.S. poultry industry produced nearly 100 billion eggs. USDA associate deputy administrator Jack Shere told the Associated Press that the avian flu could cost the U.S. taxpayers about $400 million this year.
Big Food companies are already considering changes to their menus and their pricing following the shortage. McDonald’s, Panera Bread, and General Mills, The New York Times reports.
The last serious avian flu outbreak in the United States occurred in 1983 and led to the killing of 17 million chickens, turkey, and guinea fowl in Pennsylvania and Virginia. While avian flu spread to humans in Asia in 2003, the Centers for Disease Control considers the risk to people from the current strain to be low.
Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Has Gotten $9.5 Billion Richer This Year
The stock market has inched its way to one record high after another this year, with the S&P 500 gaining a solid if unspectacular 3.5 percent so far. That rise has enriched investors by some $900 billion in 2015, as Matt Krantz at USA Today points out.
As Krantz also notes, though, some shareholders have done far, far better than the broader market. Jeff Bezos, for example.
The Amazon CEO has benefitted from a 40 percent rise in his company’s stock in 2015, adding a whopping $9.5 billion in paper gains to his already sizable net worth to lift it to $38.2 billion, good enough for 11th highest in the world, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index.
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As well as Bezos has done, four foreign billionaires have actually made more in 2015: Pan Sutong, chairman of Hong Kong investment conglomerate Goldin Group, has made more than $20 billion; Wang Jianlin, the founder and chairman of another Chinese conglomerate, Dalian Wanda, has made $19.4 billion; Zhou Qunfei, China’s richest woman, has added nearly $11 billion; and Patrick Drahi, the French chairman and largest shareholder of Luxembourg-based telecom company Altice, has gained $9.7 billion.
Bezos may be far ahead of the U.S. pack, but the USA Today analysis of data from S&P Capital IQ shows some other CEOs of American companies have fared extremely well as a result of their stock holdings, too. Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg has made more than $1 billion on paper, while Google’s Larry Page has gained just under $1 billion. And as shares of drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance have surged more than 11 percent this year, acting CEO Stefano Pessina has profited to the tune of $645.6 million. The CEOs of salesforce.com, Under Armour, Starbucks, Mohawk Industries, Constellation Brands and Netflix have all seen paper gains of more than $260 million so far in 2015.
You can see USA Today’s full list here.
This Man Just Lost $15 Billion in a Half Hour
In the history of sudden wealth loss, Li Hejun may have set a new record.
Li, who was China's richest man until this week, saw his fortune drop by as much as $15 billion in a half-hour as the stock in his company, Hanergy Thin Film Power Group, fell by nearly half. Trading in the shares was halted Wednesday and Li didn't attend the company's annual meeting.
While plenty of billionaires have seen their fortunes cut in half over time, few if any have seen $15 billion wiped out in a half-hour. Li's total fortune was around $30 billion before the stock plunged.
Prior to the drop, the company's shares had risen by more than fivefold since September, baffling analysts. Reuters reports that Hong Kong regulators are looking at alleged market manipulation with the stock.
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In a similar wealth decline, Hong Kong property and electronics magnate Pan Sutong has lost more than $11 billion this week as shares of two listed companies, Goldin Financial and Goldin Property, both closed down more than 40 percent.
Pan owns around 65 percent of Goldin Property and more than 70 percent of Goldin Financial, according to filings. His fortune was listed at more than $28 billion, making him Hong Kong's second-richest man.
That means that the two men have lost more in one day that the total net worth of Carl Icahn, Steve Ballmer or Michael Dell.
Pan is known for his large lifestyle. He's a big polo supporter and has sponsored a polo event in Britain attended by Princes William and Harry. He's said that the sport "is a way of life and belief in a sense of nobility."
Pan also owns vineyards around the world, including three in France and one in California's Napa Valley, called the Sloan Estate, which he purchased in 2011 for around $40 million.
This article originally appeared on CNBC
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How to Avoid the Worst Fees in America
Nothing gets under the skin of a savvy consumer like unwarranted and unwanted fees.
The Web site GoBankingRates.com has put together a list of the “31 Worst Fees in America,” listing some of the most egregious fees out there, as well as tips on two avoid them. The list includes 11 banking fees, 10 travel fees, and handful of fees from other categories such as health care and cell phones.
“At the bank, while traveling, or just when going about your daily business, fees are on the rise in seemingly all industries—and not just in quantity, but in price,” writes author Paul Sisolak. “Many times, they’re so well obscured that you end up paying fees without realizing it.”
The good news is that in most cases, there’s an easy fix for the fees: Avoid bank teller fees, for example, by using remote deposit and ATMs; and steer clear of ATM fees by using your bank’s app to find the nearest in-network machine.
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While bank fees may be rising, the institutions are getting better about being transparent in disclosing them. More than 60 percent of the banks reviewed last week by The Pew Charitable Trusts have adopted a summary disclosure box of terms and fees that meets the organization’s standards, up from just 25 percent in 2013.
When it comes to avoiding fees while traveling, pack light to avoid overweight bag charges and call ahead of time to get a sense of Wi-Fi and other hotel/resort fees.