Significant Drop in Medicaid Enrollment Expected in 2024

As states continue to purge their Medicaid rolls following the end of the Covid-19 pandemic last spring, officials expect the large declines in enrollment – now exceeding more than 10 million overall – to continue.

In a survey released last week, the healthcare foundation KFF found that state directors expect their Medicaid rolls to fall by 8.6% in fiscal year 2024. Spending, however, will continue to rise, though at a slower pace. Total Medicaid spending rose by 9.8% in 2022, as enrollment soared to record levels following the loosening of regulations during the pandemic. In 2023, spending rose 8.3%, but growth will slow to an estimated 3.4% rate in 2024, according to the survey.