Top Story/Obama Chills While the Economy Freezes
Sure, it’s August and everybody needs a break—especially the chief executive of the United States of America, who is noticeably grayer and thinner than when he took office. But repairing to Martha’s Vineyard to be surrounded by moneyed, vodka-and-tonic liberals while the republic goes to hell in a picnic basket might not be the smartest move a president with a 26 percent approval rating on the economy ever made.
Print and the web are rife with stories and columns questioning whether Obama is really up to the job. On CNN’s Reliable Sources, Howard Kurtz asked New York Times columnist Tom Friedman if the media had been tough enough on candidate Obama’s qualifications in 2008. Friedman, somewhat predictably, said it’s too early to make that judgment. But just the fact that Kurtz, who’s not exactly Sean Hannity, asked the question was revealing enough about media remorse. (Friedman, of course, contributed to the hard-hitting New York Times book about Obama’s rise, The Historic Journey, a paean penned by outgoing Editor Bill Keller and incoming Editor Jill Abramson among others.)
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan, who’s been getting personal about the President lately, wrote Saturday: ”[Obama has] to be full of doubts at this point about what to do. His baseline political assumptions have proved incorrect, his calculations have turned out to be erroneous, and his big decisions have turned to dust. …Nothing worked! And nothing is going to work. He’s the smartest guy in the room, but he’s got the reverse Midas touch. Everything he touches turns to—well, unsatisfying outcomes.”
On State of the Union, CNN’s Sunday morning show, Candy Crowley played a clip of Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters of California for Obama adviser David Axelrod. In it, Waters said: “We're supportive of the president, but we are getting tired y'all. We're getting tired. The unemployment is unconscionable. We don't know what the strategy is.”
On second thought, when you have both a Republican doyenne and a left-leaning Democratic maverick on your case, maybe getting away to the beach is the right move.
“The president needs a short-term and a long-term plan,” CNBC Closing Bell anchor said on Meet the Press. “On the short-term, a plan that the markets can believe. The markets are built on confidence.” She said business doesn’t have the confidence to create jobs. “…The corporate sector is the strongest that we've seen in a long time. They've got $2.5 trillion in cash. But they're not putting the money to work because they're anticipating costs going higher later,” Bartiromo said. And, she added, because the Dodd-Frank corporate reform rules are only now being written, “Businesses do not know what their business is going to look like in six months, so they're not going to add heads to the payroll.”
That picture of business as a deer in Washington’s headlights was echoed by a feisty GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman on ABC’s This Week. “People aren't putting money into the marketplace,” said Huntsman, who called himself a center-right candidate. “They're not hiring because there's so much uncertainty and confusion about where this economy is going.”
Asked by Jake Tapper if he would trust Michele Bachmann “to do the right thing with the economy,” Huntsman said: “I wouldn't necessarily trust any of my opponents right now who were on a recent debate stage with me, when every single one of them would have allowed this country to default. You can imagine, given the uncertainty of the marketplace the last several days and even the last couple of weeks, if we had defaulted…this marketplace would be in absolute turmoil. And for people who are already losing enough as it is on their 401(k)s and retirement programs and home valuations, it would have been catastrophic.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, was cautiously optimistic. On Face the Nation, he told Norah O’Donnell: “I think with some good policymaking we'll be able to avoid a recession. You know, we've made some significant progress righting the wrongs that got us into this mess in the first place. And the most important fundamental reason for optimism is that American businesses have done a very good job getting their cost structures down, getting their profitability up, getting their balance sheets in order. Not all businesses. Small businesses aren't doing quite as well as the larger companies. But in aggregate, they're doing very well. …[That’s] not a reason for them to go out and hire people, which is what we need. But I think that is a reason for them not to lay off workers. And that's what would have to occur for a recession to ensue.”
“What happened to the recovery?” O’Donnell asked.
“We got hit by a string of unfortunate events,” Zandi said. “Everything from four dollars for a gallon of regular unleaded to the Japanese quake effects and the impact on our vehicle sector. But most significantly it's the debt ceiling drama, the spectacle in Washington, and of course the S&P downgrade that I think completely undermined confidence. And we were already very nervous coming out of the Great Recession. And so I think we've all frozen. And that's reflected in these wild swings and the declines in the stock market over the last couple or three weeks.”
Zandi said if the payroll tax holiday and unemployment benefits are not extended, it will cost the country about a percentage point of GDP in 2012 and there will be another million people unemployed.
Election 2012/Waiting for Sarah
A lot of times during the past six months, the GOP presidential race has seemed like an old-fashioned burlesque show. Donald Trump, who wrote The Art of the Deal, perfected the art of the tease before collecting his clothing and rushing off the stage. Texas Governor Rick Perry let the anticipation build, too, but at least he didn’t disappoint the audience.
Now the wait is on for former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to make a decision. Palin has a new ad, sponsored by her political action committee, that is billed as a thank-you note to Iowa, one of the stops on her “One Nation” bus tour. The ad, which has a decidedly campaign feel, shows Palin at the Iowa State Fair, communing with the hoi polloi.
On Meet the Press, columnist Peggy Noonan, who poormouthed Palin when she was the GOP vice-presidential nominee in 2008, said of the ad: “That could be business at work, and it also has the look, superficially, of a campaign thing. …My sense of Republicans on the ground in America [is] they don't think the field is full and they don't want the field to be full. They want more people to choose from. …Paul Ryan, there's talk. The talk about Chris Christie has not gone away no matter how much he says he won't do it. He actually threatened a while back to kill himself if they wouldn't stop it. And they're not stopping it.”
On This Week, pollster Frank Luntz was asked: “Do you think either Ryan or Christie will get into the race? And is there an opening for either one of them, if not both of them?”
“Chris Christie has the advantage that he is basically a blue-collar Republican,” Luntz said. “He says what he means, means what he says, he's in-your-face, and Republicans love that. And they see that what he's doing in New Jersey -- they want to see that happen in Washington. In Paul Ryan's case, they regard him as one of the smartest candidates…and he's got a plan. Whether or not they run, I have no idea. But I would tell you that they would be very powerful entries into this Republican contest….”
Later on the same program, conservative columnist George Will threw cold water on the chance of Christie entering the race. “My conviction, after spending some time with Mr. Christie recently, is that he has no intention of running. He has four children. He's a happy father. He's enjoying being governor of New Jersey. And I think he doubts, probably reasonably, whether the tone of voice that has made him such a figure is a national, presidential tone of voice.”
On Fox Sunday, Republican strategist Karl Rove said of Palin: “I'm not much of a gambler but I'd put a little more money that she gets in than she doesn't because of the schedule she's got next week in Iowa: It looks like that of candidate, not celebrity.” Rove said Palin probably needs to join the race shortly after next week before her support starts waning. “You can only tease so many times in the political process,” he said, “and I think she is getting to the end of that.”
