Good evening! The developments of the past 24 hours could have massive implications for the election and the future of the American government, including major wins for Republicans in the presidential debate and at the Supreme Court. We’ll get to the debate and its aftermath in a minute, but we should first note that the high court on Friday issued a couple of landmark rulings, including one 6-3 decision along ideological lines that undoes 40 years of precedent and sharply curtails the regulatory power of federal agencies.
"The case was the conservative-dominated court’s clearest and boldest repudiation yet of what critics of regulation call the administrative state," Mark Sherman of the Associated Press writes. "Billions of dollars are potentially at stake in challenges that could be spawned by the high court’s ruling."
Let’s get into it.
Biden Looks to Rebound From a Disastrous Debate
Normally, after a presidential debate, we’d examine the policy claims and promises raised by the candidates, detailing their economic plans and dissecting their differences. There’s little point in delving into that today, given President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance in his showdown last night against former President Donald Trump.
Biden had one main job to do: dispel questions about his mental and physical fitness for the presidency. He failed miserably, appearing feeble and often fumbling for words. Biden’s most notable stumble came early on in response to a question about the national debt. He started talking about how he’d undo Trump’s tax cuts for the rich and fix the tax system, then lost his train of thought and trailed off awkwardly before concluding, "We finally beat Medicare" — a confusing and bungled attempt to claim credit for beating Big Pharma by enabling Medicare to negotiate the price of some prescription drugs.
That answer cemented the impression that Biden was struggling, and his performance overall drew Democratic reactions ranging from deep disappointment to outright panic — and more than a few calls from both party members and outside commentators for him to drop out of the race. Veteran political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics told CNN that he has watched every single presidential debate since the four Kennedy-Nixon matchups in 1960. "It gives me no joy to say this, but President Biden’s performance was the worst by a major party nominee for president in that entire time period," Sabato said.
Trump, on the other hand, largely skated through the debate, rarely challenged on a series of lies, fabrications and falsehoods — dozens of them. You can find plenty of detailed fact checks of both candidates, including ones rejecting Trump’s assertion that Biden would "raise your taxes by four times," addressing his claim that he oversaw "the greatest economy in history," and correcting the details Biden mangled about lowering out-of-pocket payments for insulin and capping prescription drug costs. But any post-debate discussion of those lies is inevitably overshadowed by the unavoidable truth of Biden’s atrocious showing.
At The American Prospect, David Dayen makes the case that Biden’s team overstuffed him with stats, numbers and policy arguments, especially for a debate against Trump. "Filling Biden’s head with all of these details and this precise sequencing created the slipups. It was clearly calibrated by committee, an attempt to thread the needle of boasting, empathy, and vision in a way that did none of it," Dayen writes, laying blame on the advisors "who thought you could bring a white paper to a knife fight."
Biden tries to rescue his candidacy: At a campaign rally in North Carolina on Friday, Biden sought to do damage control. "I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious. I don't walk as easy as I used to, I don't speak as smoothly as I used to, I don't debate as well as I used to," Biden said, appearing far more vigorous than he did last night. "But I know what I do know: I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. And I know like millions of Americans know: When you get knocked down, you get back up."
The bottom line: Biden didn’t get knocked down so much as he tripped himself up. That will make it much harder for the president and Democrats to turn this election into anything besides a referendum on Biden’s fitness to serve another four years.
House Passes 3 Spending Bills, Teeing Up Battles This Fall
The Republican-controlled House on Friday approved spending bills that would fund the Departments of Defense, State and Homeland Security, with the votes falling largely along party lines.
The Defense bill would provide $833 billion in spending in fiscal year 2025, a 1% increase from 2024 levels. Homeland Security would receive $64.8 billion in funding, while the State Department and foreign operations bill would provide $51.7 billion in spending — a roughly 12% cut from the 2024 levels.
The three bills are not expected to become law amid opposition from both the Democratic-controlled Senate and the White House, which has vowed to veto the bills in the unlikely event that they arrive on President Biden’s desk in their current form.
Instead, lawmakers will battle over spending levels and policy details as we get closer to the end of the fiscal year in September — and likely after the election in November, when it will be clear who’s will control Washington next year.
In addition to spending levels, lawmakers will fight over numerous controversial provisions in the bills that reflect Republican priorities. Among other things, the bills would eliminate the salaries of the secretaries of the Homeland Security and State Departments. They also touch upon culture war issues, such as prohibiting drag queen story hours on military bases.
"None of these bills — none of them — will be signed into law the way they are written right now," said Representative Jim McGovern, a Democrat from Massachusetts, per The New York Times. "We all know that this is not about serious legislating. This is about show business right now, performing for the most extreme right wing of the Republican base, and it is a waste of time."
Still, the bills get Republican leaders in the House one step closer to achieving their stated goal of passing all 12 annual funding bills before the end of the fiscal year, even if that legislation has little chance of moving forward.
Supreme Court Restricts the Power of Federal Agencies
In a major blow to the regulatory agencies that monitor the environment, public health, workplace safety and a host of other matters, the Supreme Court on Friday announced that it has reversed a 40-year-old decision that required lower courts to defer to the expertise of federal regulators when laws passed by Congress are unclear or ambiguous.
In a 6-3 decision that followed ideological lines, the court threw out a 1984 standard known colloquially as the Chevron deference, which underwrote thousands of detailed regulations issued by dozens of federal agencies. Overturning the rule has long been a goal of conservative and business groups.
In the majority decision, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that, "Agencies have no special competence in resolving statutory ambiguities. Courts do."
In dissent, Justice Elena Kagan said the courts lack both the technical expertise to address many complex issues and democratic accountability. "Agencies report to a President, who in turn answers to the public for his policy calls; courts have no such accountability and no proper basis for making policy." In overturning the law, "a rule of judicial humility gives way to a rule of judicial hubris," Kagan said.
Craig Green, a law professor at Temple University, told the Associated Press that the decision marks a significant change in how regulation will work. "Federal judges will now have the first and final word about what statutes mean," he said. "That’s a big shift in power."
Learn more about the details of the case at The New York Times, Slate and Vox.
Number of the Day: 2.6%
A measure of inflation called the personal consumption expenditures price index was flat in May on a monthly basis and up 2.6% on an annual basis, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The core version of the index, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was up 0.1% on a monthly basis and 2.6% on an annual basis.
"The sharp slowdown in core inflation is just what the doctor needed to see to keep the economy on the soft-landing glide-path," said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets, per Reuters.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the latest data show that the Fed’s approach to inflation has been effective. "It is just additional news that monetary policy is working, inflation is gradually cooling," she told CNBC. "That’s a relief for businesses and households who’ve been struggling with persistently high inflation. It’s good news for how policy is working."
Fiscal News Roundup
- Biden Rallies Boisterous Crowd as He Tries to Tamp Down Debate Concerns – Washington Post
- Biden Acknowledges Age, Bad Debate Performance but Vows to Beat Trump – Reuters
- Biden Concedes Debate Fumbles but Declares He Will Defend Democracy. Dems Stick by Him — for Now – Associated Press
- Panicked Emails, Gallows Humor: The Aftermath of Biden's Debate Disaster – Bloomberg
- First the Debate, Then a Supreme Court Ruling: Trump’s Big 24 Hours – New York Times
- Inside the Health Arguments at Biden and Trump’s First Debate – Washington Post
- Trump Says Immigrants Are Taking ‘Black Jobs.’ Economists Disagree – Washington Post
- Supreme Court Overturns Chevron Rule in Blow to Agency Power – Bloomberg
- House G.O.P. Begins Push on Hard-Right Spending Bills, Teeing Up Future Battles – New York Times
- Biden Administration Pauses Collection on Some Student Loans – Washington Post
- Biden, Trump Tax Reforms 'Very Unlikely' With a Split Congress – Yahoo Finance
- It Was a $6.6B Deal for 9 Years. Then the Feds Reneged. Did Politics Play a Role? – Washington Post
Views and Analysis
- Can Biden Recover From His Damaging Debate Performance? – Dan Balz, Washington Post
- To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race – New York Times Editorial Board
- A Banner 12 Hours for the GOP and Trump – Aaron Blake, Washington Post
- Biden Cannot Go On Like This – Frank Bruni, New York Times
- Is Biden Too Old? America Got Its Answer – Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat and Ezra Klein, New York Times
- ‘God Help Us’: 12 Writers Rate Biden’s Performance at the First Presidential Debate – New York Times Opinion
- Biden’s Inner Circle Deserves Some Blame Too – David Dayen, American Prospect
- The Supreme Court Just Gave Itself a Lot More Power – Noah Feldman, Bloomberg
- The Justices Just Shackled Biden and Every Future President — and Created New Messes for Congress to Solve – Politico Pro Staff
- One Way to Make Russia Pay for Ukraine? Take Its Money – Peter Coy, New York Times