4 Reasons the Fed Won’t Raise Interest Rates in June
It is no surprise that the Fed didn’t take action on interest rates at the April Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The question of interest to the market is whether the Federal Reserve has revealed some clear signal in its statement about the timing of the future rate increase. Even though the Fed did not change its forward guidance on rate increases from the March statement, we can discern what the Fed has on its plate. Four aspects of the economy stand out:
Related: Bernanke Was Right—Interest Rates Aren’t Going Anywhere
- The latest GDP data show worse-than-expected growth at an annualized 0.2 percent during the first quarter of 2015, compared to 2.2 percent in the last quarter of 2014.
- The strong U.S. dollar has continued to weigh on exports. Net exports in the first quarter stayed unchanged (0.0 percent growth) year-over-year, compared with 18.6 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2014.
- Inflation has continued to stay way below the central bank’s 2 percent target. The price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE), the measure of inflation preferred by the Fed, showed a 0.3 percent year-over-year increase in the first quarter, much lower than the growth rate of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile prices of food and energy, reached 1.3 percent, compared with 1.4 percent in the last quarter.
- The improvements in the labor market, the other mandate of the Federal Reserve besides inflation, also slowed. Only 126,000 employees were added to nonfarm payrolls in March, compared to 264,000 in February and 201,000 in January.
Related: Fed’s Downgrade of Economic Outlooks Signals Later Rates Lift-Off
In all, the U.S. economy is growing more slowly than anticipated with some headwinds that may last for a while, such as the strong dollar. Both measures of the Fed’s dual mandate, price stability and maximum employment, remain below the Fed’s target. Normally this would call for an accommodative monetary policy, postponing the rate increases until later in the year. Rather than starting rate increases at the June FOMC meeting, the liftoff in September instead is more likely.
This story originally appeared at the American Institute for Economic Research.
Quote of the Day - October 16, 2017
Speaking at a cabinet meeting on Monday, President Trump said:
"Obamacare is finished, it's dead, it's gone ... There is no such thing as Obamacare anymore."
Click here for the video.
Poll: Trump Tax Cuts Favor the Wealthy; Deficit Should Be Higher Priority
Trump and the GOP still have work to do if they want to convince Americans that their tax plan won’t mostly help the rich. A CBS News Nation Tracker poll released Sunday finds that 58 percent say the tax reforms being discussed favor the wealthy, while 19 percent say it treats everyone equally and 18 percent say it favors the middle class.
The poll also found that 39 percent say that cutting the deficit should be a priority, even if it means taxes stay the same. About half as many people said cutting taxes should be prioritized even if the deficit rises.
The poll, conducted by YouGov, surveyed 2,371 U.S. adults between October 11 and 13. Its margin of error is 2.5 percent.
Coporate Tax Cut Could Be Phased In
House tax writers (at least some of them) are worried that slashing the corporate tax rate found will push the deficit higher in a hurry – an analysis by the Tax Policy Center found that cutting the rate to the stated goal of 20 percent would cost $2 trillion over a decade. One way to soften the fiscal blow would be to phase in the reduction over three to five years. House Republicans say such an approach would reduce the size of the lost revenue by half.
Larry Summers: GOP Tax Claims Are 'Made-Up'
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers isn't happy with the Republican tax plan, and it's not just because he has a different set of ideas as a Democrat. More fundamentally, he says Republicans are making false claims: “When you have -- and I hate to be in a position of using this word about our government -- when you have senior economic officials making claims that are made-up ... it’s very hard to have a dialogue, and compromise, and get to a good place.”
Summers is also worried about the effects of a tax cut for the rich during a time of considerable social turmoil: “There’s a lot of unhappiness and anger out there … It’s really hard to see why focusing a corporate tax cut on those at the very high-end is going to do much to assuage that anger.”
How Much Did Mike Pence’s NFL Walkout Cost Taxpayers?
Vice President Mike Pence’s decision to attend an NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers yesterday and then leave after some 49ers players kneeled during the national anthem was quickly criticized by some as a planned piece of political theater — and a somewhat expensive one at that. “After all the scandals involving unnecessarily expensive travel by cabinet secretaries, how much taxpayer money was wasted on this stunt?” Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) tweeted Sunday afternoon.
The answer, CNN reports, is about $242,500: "According to the Air Force, flying a C-32, the model of plane used for Air Force 2, for one hour costs about $30,000. Pence's flight from Las Vegas to Indianapolis Saturday took about three hours and 20 minutes, so it cost about $100,000. Pence then flew from Indianapolis to Los Angeles on Sunday, which took about four hours and 45 minutes, costing about $142,500."
President Trump defended Pence’s trip, tweeting that it had been “long planned.” CNN also reports that some of the costs of Pence's flight from Indianapolis to Los Angeles will be paid back by the Republican National Committee because the vice president is attending a political event there.